- Foreign direct investment (FDI) jumped 95.8% ytd y/y, and is likely to further support export manufacturing.
- Retail sales posted 12.58% ytd growth as trade-related sales continue to rise.
- Inflation came in lower than expected, posting a second straight month of decline.
- External trade posted a narrow deficit, though it remains structurally different from the trade deficits in 2010.
We see upside risk to our 2013 GDP growth forecast of 5.1% as we expect domestic demand to show some signs of improvement through the end of the year. However, the structural problems due to high non-performing loans in the banking sector are likely to keep growth below potential.
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