The ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence gained 5.8ppts to 141.1 in October, rising well above the long-term average of 135.9. It is also 6.4ppts higher than it was a year ago (Oct’14: 134.7). The latest improvement stems from increased optimism about personal finances as well as future economic conditions in Vietnam.
- In terms of personal finances, 34% (up 5ppts m/m) of the respondents said their families are ‘better off’ financially than the same time last year. Meanwhile, a record low 16% (down 6ppts) said their families are ‘worse off’ financially.
- 57% (up 2ppts) expect their families to be ‘better off’ financially this time next year. Only 4% (down 2ppts) expect to be ‘worse off’, the lowest ever recorded for the indicator since the survey started.
- In addition, 57% (up 7ppts) expect Vietnam to experience ‘good times’ financially during the next 12 months but 10% (down 2ppts) expect ‘bad times’.
- Over the longer term, 64% (up 3ppts) of the respondents expect Vietnam to have ‘good times’ economically in the next five years. In contrast, 5% (down 2ppts) expect the domestic economy to have ‘bad times’.
- Separately, the number of respondents who felt that ‘now is a good time to buy’ major household items edged lower to 40% (down 1ppt), the lowest value recorded for the indicator since November 2014. On the other hand, the number of respondents who felt ‘now is a bad time’ to buy also slipped to 11% (down 1ppt), the lowest level since February 2015.
ANZ CHIEF ECONOMIST SOUTH ASIA, ASEAN & PACIFIC, GLENN MAGUIRE SAYS:
“Consumer sentiment rose both strongly and broadly in October in a sign that the Vietnamese economy continues to uniquely weather the global trade slowdown, and the strong ongoing performance of the external sector is having positive spillover effects into the broader economy, particularly for domestic-facing sectors.
We believe that the global backdrop will continue to remain on a weakening trend, due to China’s economic slowdown and the recovery trend in the US, Japan and Europe firming but not strong. Thus, it is important that domestic demand in Vietnam emerges as a further stabiliser to growth. Our consumer confidence index clearly confirms that this is happening.
The strong increase in perceptions about both current and expected personal financial situations suggests that Vietnamese households are starting to enjoy positive economic spillovers, ie higher income, from the strong continued performance of the external sector.
As the question on whether ‘now was a good time’ to purchase a major household item received the only negative response in an otherwise very strong report, we believe that the positive income backdrop that is now falling into place in Vietnam will continue to ensure that the recovery broadens and strengthens.”
Please see the attached document for further details.
ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Oct 2015 – ENG (English file)
ANZ-Roy Morgan Vietnam Consumer Confidence Oct 2015 – VIE (Vietnamese file)
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