DI inflows and expanded manufacturing base to sustain high GDP growth, according to bank.
ANZ has forecast strong GDP growth this year and next as Vietnam continues to attract FDI inflows and expand its manufacturing base. According to Mr. Khoon Goh, Head of Asia Research at ANZ, GDP in Vietnam will be 6.8 per cent in 2018 and 7.0 per cent in 2019.
The positive long-term outlook is based on favorable demographics, an educated workforce, ongoing economic reforms, and the benefits from free trade agreements (the CPTPP, possibly the RCEP, and the Vietnam-EU FTA).
Mr. Goh also pointed out the near-term challenges for Vietnam as being ensuring inflation remains contained, managing credit growth so that it is not too strong above trend, and strengthening financial sector balance sheets.
Regarding monetary and foreign exchange, ANZ expects the State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) to keep the policy rate at 6.25 per cent this year but raise it to 6.75 per cent in 2019 to keep inflation in check. “We forecast USD/VND at 23,600 by end-2018 and 23,900 by end-2019,” Mr. Goh said.
Vietnam Economic Times
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